Quantification of Uncertainty in CFD Simulation of Accidental Gas Release for O & G Quantitative Risk Assessment

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of Oil & Gas installations implies modeling accidents’ evolution. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is one way to do this, and off-the-shelf tools are available, such as FLACS developed by Gexcon US KFX DNV-GL. A recent model based on ANSYS Fluent, named SBAM (Source Box Accident Model) was proposed the SEADOG lab at Politecnico di Torino. In this work, we address major concern related use CFD for accident simulation, which relevant computational demand that limits number simulations can be performed. This brings with it challenge quantifying uncertainty results obtained, requires performing a large simulations. Here propose procedure Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) FLACX, SBAM, show its performance considering an accidental high-pressure methane release scenario in realistic offshore (O G) platform deck. The novelty work UQ models, performed relying well-consolidated approaches Grid Convergence Index (GCI) method generalization Richardson’s extrapolation, originally propagated set risk measures used support decision-making process prevent/mitigate scenarios.